Please read the README file in this repository.

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Croatia⮸

Population $4,105,267$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $6,855$ on 2020-08-18

Best fit exponential: \(594 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(50.4\) days)

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $166$ on 2020-08-18

Best fit exponential: \(38.3 \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(69.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{137.3}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 49.9)}}\) (asimptote \(137.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,371$ on 2020-08-18

Switzerland⮸

Population $8,654,622$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $38,449$ on 2020-08-18

Best fit exponential: \(1.48 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(113.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{32,462.4}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 33.0)}}\) (asimptote \(32,462.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,992$ on 2020-08-18

Best fit exponential: \(842 \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(106.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,949.0}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 37.8)}}\) (asimptote \(1,949.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,957$ on 2020-08-18

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $254,636$ on 2020-08-18

Best fit exponential: \(9.46 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(104.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{240,691.1}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 44.4)}}\) (asimptote \(240,691.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $35,405$ on 2020-08-18

Best fit exponential: \(1.3 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(99.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{34,538.0}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 46.6)}}\) (asimptote \(34,538.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $15,089$ on 2020-08-18

US⮸

Population $331,002,651$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,482,416$ on 2020-08-18

Best fit exponential: \(3.94 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(42.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,275,170.2}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 158.4)}}\) (asimptote \(10,275,170.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $171,821$ on 2020-08-18

Best fit exponential: \(3.51 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(64.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{152,506.3}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 61.7)}}\) (asimptote \(152,506.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3,412,436$ on 2020-08-18

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $322,177$ on 2020-08-18

Best fit exponential: \(8.42 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(77.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{296,145.9}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 56.6)}}\) (asimptote \(296,145.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $41,466$ on 2020-08-18

Best fit exponential: \(1.43 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(85.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{40,448.5}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 45.2)}}\) (asimptote \(40,448.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $279,218$ on 2020-08-18

Sweden⮸

Population $10,099,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $85,219$ on 2020-08-18

Best fit exponential: \(1.01 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(50.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{89,792.4}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 97.3)}}\) (asimptote \(89,792.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,790$ on 2020-08-18

Best fit exponential: \(1.54 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(70.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,640.9}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 54.9)}}\) (asimptote \(5,640.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $79,429$ on 2020-08-18

Germany⮸

Population $83,783,942$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $228,120$ on 2020-08-18

Best fit exponential: \(7.93 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(99.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{197,071.7}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 39.0)}}\) (asimptote \(197,071.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $9,241$ on 2020-08-18

Best fit exponential: \(3.67 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(96.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,951.1}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 37.7)}}\) (asimptote \(8,951.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $15,202$ on 2020-08-18

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

China recovered 98%
Djibouti recovered 96%
Belarus recovered 93%
Congo (Kinshasa) recovered 90%
Pakistan recovered 87%
Sri Lanka recovered 86%
Singapore recovered 84%
Mauritania recovered 80%
Azerbaijan recovered 80%
Ghana recovered 77%
Madagascar recovered 71%
Saudi Arabia recovered 60%
Zambia recovered 58%
Uzbekistan recovered 58%
Kyrgyzstan recovered 55%
Kazakhstan recovered 54%
Montenegro recovered 51%
Armenia recovered 50%
Yemen recovered 48%
Egypt recovered 46%
South Africa recovered 46%
Tajikistan recovered 40%
Israel recovered 35%
Russia recovered 29%
Dominican Republic recovered 14%
Brazil recovered 9%
Australia recovered 8%

China⮸

Population $1,439,323,776$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-01-26 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $89,494$ on 2020-08-18

Best fit exponential: \(3.2 \times 10^{-14} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{84,222.4}{1 + 10^{-0.087 (t - 15.3)}}\) (asimptote \(84,222.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-01-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,705$ on 2020-08-18

Best fit exponential: \(4.74 \times 10^{-15} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,675.1}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 31.5)}}\) (asimptote \(4,675.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-01-26 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,381$ on 2020-08-18

Djibouti⮸

Population $988,000$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,374$ on 2020-08-18

Best fit exponential: \(981 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(54.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,214.8}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 68.1)}}\) (asimptote \(5,214.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $59$ on 2020-08-18

Best fit exponential: \(10.8 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(46.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{58.3}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 58.0)}}\) (asimptote \(58.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $99$ on 2020-08-18

Belarus⮸

Population $9,449,323$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $69,673$ on 2020-08-18

Best fit exponential: \(1.17 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(54.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{68,238.0}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 72.6)}}\) (asimptote \(68,238.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $617$ on 2020-08-18

Best fit exponential: \(84.8 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(45.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{664.7}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 80.3)}}\) (asimptote \(664.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,717$ on 2020-08-18

Congo (Kinshasa)⮸

Population $5,518,087$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $9,721$ on 2020-08-18

Best fit exponential: \(888 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(40.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,698.5}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 88.2)}}\) (asimptote \(9,698.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $243$ on 2020-08-18

Best fit exponential: \(25.5 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(43.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{255.1}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 91.2)}}\) (asimptote \(255.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $596$ on 2020-08-18