Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $6,855$ on 2020-08-18
Best fit exponential: \(594 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(50.4\) days)
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $166$ on 2020-08-18
Best fit exponential: \(38.3 \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(69.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{137.3}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 49.9)}}\) (asimptote \(137.3\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,371$ on 2020-08-18
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $38,449$ on 2020-08-18
Best fit exponential: \(1.48 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(113.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{32,462.4}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 33.0)}}\) (asimptote \(32,462.4\))
Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,992$ on 2020-08-18
Best fit exponential: \(842 \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(106.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,949.0}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 37.8)}}\) (asimptote \(1,949.0\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $2,957$ on 2020-08-18
Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $254,636$ on 2020-08-18
Best fit exponential: \(9.46 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(104.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{240,691.1}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 44.4)}}\) (asimptote \(240,691.1\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $35,405$ on 2020-08-18
Best fit exponential: \(1.3 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(99.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{34,538.0}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 46.6)}}\) (asimptote \(34,538.0\))
Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $15,089$ on 2020-08-18
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $5,482,416$ on 2020-08-18
Best fit exponential: \(3.94 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(42.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,275,170.2}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 158.4)}}\) (asimptote \(10,275,170.2\))
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $171,821$ on 2020-08-18
Best fit exponential: \(3.51 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(64.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{152,506.3}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 61.7)}}\) (asimptote \(152,506.3\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $3,412,436$ on 2020-08-18
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $322,177$ on 2020-08-18
Best fit exponential: \(8.42 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(77.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{296,145.9}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 56.6)}}\) (asimptote \(296,145.9\))
Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $41,466$ on 2020-08-18
Best fit exponential: \(1.43 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(85.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{40,448.5}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 45.2)}}\) (asimptote \(40,448.5\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $279,218$ on 2020-08-18
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $85,219$ on 2020-08-18
Best fit exponential: \(1.01 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(50.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{89,792.4}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 97.3)}}\) (asimptote \(89,792.4\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $5,790$ on 2020-08-18
Best fit exponential: \(1.54 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(70.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,640.9}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 54.9)}}\) (asimptote \(5,640.9\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $79,429$ on 2020-08-18
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $228,120$ on 2020-08-18
Best fit exponential: \(7.93 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(99.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{197,071.7}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 39.0)}}\) (asimptote \(197,071.7\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $9,241$ on 2020-08-18
Best fit exponential: \(3.67 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(96.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,951.1}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 37.7)}}\) (asimptote \(8,951.1\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $15,202$ on 2020-08-18